📊 Model Agreement (14 Models)

We query 13 weather models: ECMWF, GFS, ICON, GEM, JMA, HRRR, NWS, Tomorrow.io, OpenWeatherMap, WeatherAPI, PirateWeather, VisualCrossing, and Open-Meteo blend. Each model predicts the daily high temperature.

Agreement % = (Models predicting same bucket) / (Total models) × 100

🎯 Edge Calculation Per Model

For each model prediction, we calculate probability using a normal distribution (σ = 2.0°F typical forecast error):

Model Prob = P(low ≤ actual ≤ high) using Z-scores
YES Edge = Model Prob − Market Price
NO Edge = (100 − Model Prob) − (100 − Market Price)

Worst-Case Edge = MIN(all agreeing model edges) — conservative metric
Average Edge = MEAN(all agreeing model edges) — used for NEAR-SAFE tier

🏆 Confidence Tiers

🔒 LOCK	100% unanimous + end-band bucket + worst edge ≥15% + 5+ models
💪 STRONG	(100% unanimous OR 90%+ with 6+ models) + worst edge ≥10%
🛡️ SAFE	80%+ agreement + worst edge ≥10%
👀 NEAR-SAFE	60%+ agreement + average edge ≥5%

✓ YES vs ✗ NO Bets

YES bets: Models agree the bucket is underpriced. We look for consensus where most models predict the temperature will fall IN the bucket.

NO bets: Models agree the bucket is overpriced. 60%+ of models predict the temperature will fall OUTSIDE the bucket.

⚡ Current Day Filtering

For today's bets, we fetch the observed high from NWS (updates hourly) and filter out:

❌ LOST	YES on range where observed > high bound; NO on "X or higher" where observed ≥ X
✅ WON	YES on "X or higher" where observed ≥ X; NO on range where observed > high bound
⚠️ RISKY	NO bet where observed is IN or within 1°F of the bucket range

🎰 Why End-Bands are Special

End-band buckets ("X or higher" / "X or lower") have infinite range on one side. If all models agree the temp will exceed the threshold, the probability approaches certainty — making unanimous end-band agreement the strongest signal.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Even LOCK bets can lose due to sudden weather changes, model errors, or measurement issues. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly.